Global market snapshot
Equity markets
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* Date loading. †Exchange capitalization is domestic equity market capitalization in U.S. dollars from the World Federation of Exchanges (May 2026); it is not the capitalization of the displayed benchmark index. U.S. benchmark cards overlap and must not be added together.
Market indicators
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* “Latest” uses the newest RiskSnap quote. COMEX gold is the active Globex futures contract; its change is versus the prior futures close. Bitcoin trades 24/7. PPI and geopolitical risk are periodic releases.
Foreign exchange
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Concentration Risk
ConcentrationThere are several layers of concentration . Crypto attracts headlines, principally MSTR and Michael Saylor. The MAG Seven and other AI companies are highly visible. Less discussed is the concentration among the asset managers investing on behalf of funds and other clients.
Unlike exchange-traded securities, these underlying positions are not continuously visible. ETF holdings and mutual-fund net asset values are generally published regularly, while many others are disclosed only periodically. The three large non-bank managers are BlackRock, Vanguard and Fidelity overseeing US$33.5 trillion in asset. Also in the chart are bank affiliated managers: State Street, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs who collectively oversee US$15 trillion . These figures are extraordinary. Although the assets largely belong to clients—and bank depositors are not directly exposed—the scale raises an important question: have some asset managers become systemically important, or even too big to fail?
During the 2008 financial crisis, Bank of America and other major financial institutions were considered too important to permit a collapse. The Bush administration responded with the US$700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Asset managers are structurally different from banks, but their enormous size of holdings could still amplify market stress if there was an exit at the same time.
The Treasury has now enlarged its long-term bond-buyback operations.. Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary indicated a buy back possibly up to $1 Trillion of long term bonds? Would the purchases be sufficient during a severe, concentrated sell-off? 31-Aug-2026
Thoughts on Risk for the day
Aug 26, 2026
Treasury's Higher-Yield Trap
Yield Trap
Higher Treasury yields should attract buyers, but the amount of debt that must be financed keeps growing. Large deficits require more issuance; greater supply and fiscal uncertainty make investors demand higher yields; and those higher yields increase the government’s interest expense, adding to future deficits and borrowing needs. The striking feature is that long-term yields have risen sharply while 10-year inflation expectations have remained near 2–2½%. This suggests that inflation expectations alone are not driving the move: higher real yields and term premium—the compensation investors require for holding long-duration government debt—are increasingly important. Treasury buybacks may improve liquidity or alter the maturity mix, but they do not eliminate the financing requirement. Higher yields are increasingly the price Treasury must pay to attract sufficient capital. The Rates and Inflation page provides yields for various currencies plus relevant Federal Reserve Statistic
Jul 16, 2026
Impact of Correlations
The Correlations page has a history slider that visualizes how relationships between various assets change throughout history. For example, if someone clicks on 'World Indices' and presses play, it is visually evident that Oil becomes more and more inversely correlated with equities, as do yields. As expected this started to occur in March, right after the US incursion into Iran.
Impact of Crude Oil on correlations
Correlations
The global crude oil market is about $4 trillion per year, depending on oil prices, currently around $100/b, or 100 mb/d [oileyes.com]. When oil spikes from $60 to $100, trillions of dollars shift globally very quickly. It's worth considering how this affects other assets. In particular Gold which is one of the most heavily traded assets on Earth, rivaling US TBills. Daily turnover according to gold.org is US$174 bn/day or $63.5 trillion per year. Gold not being a fiat currency is influenced by relationship to events/other assets. Originally perceived as a safe haven ("war hedge"), then later as a hedge against inflation, and more recently a hedge against the US dollar. Currently, with oil putting pressure on anticipated inflation, and a rise in yields, particular Euro Bonds 2nd largest sovereign bond market after the US, oil is negatively correlated with Euro Yields.
Market Risk Factors
Yield Curves, Inflation and Foreign Exchange
Volatility
The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) typical ranges: 12-20 normal, 20-30 elevated fear/uncertainty, 30-40 significant stress, 40-60 panic. Currently considered normal. Note the very strong negative correlations between the other markets (with exception of gold) and VIX.
Correlations
Correlation covers all risk factors. Some of the most watched risk factors can be found in Correlations page
Volatility Surface - Equities
Real time implied vol surfaces from market sources can be viewed on Surface page
An example of a surface grid. Grids are on the same page
Gamma - Equities
Gamma is the change in delta and is useful for viewing expected changes in equity prices due to option trading. Gamma walls are also provided in the Gamma page
The surface can be viewed as raw data. The following shows the gamma walls.
VaR as a Risk Measure
Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most popular tools used in risk management and is incorporated within the Basel Accord for banking supervision. VaR is used by central counterparties (CCPs) for purposes of determining initial margin. VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES) are standard measures used by traders for setting risk limits and can be used by investors, traders and risk managers both for preventing panic selling (or buying) in periods of high volatility, and also preventing overreaching in periods of low volatility. VaR calculations can be done on the Portfolio Optimization page.